Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 2020 | 2000 | 22608 | 57 | 6 | 414 | 664 |
| October 01 2020 | 2016 | 22604 | 59 | 7 | 399 | 618 |
| October 02 2020 | 2058 | 23129 | 60 | 7 | 408 | 582 |
| October 03 2020 | 2100 | 23296 | 63 | 7 | 397 | 573 |
| October 04 2020 | 2123 | 23391 | 65 | 7 | 389 | 537 |
| October 05 2020 | 2152 | 23394 | 68 | 7 | 376 | 535 |
| October 06 2020 | 2184 | 23558 | 69 | 7 | 344 | 534 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.8% | 13 | 0.11% | 26 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 4.4 | 13.1% | 45 | 0.33% | 78 | 0.57% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 8.7 | 29.4% | 101 | 0.48% | 169 | 0.81% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 3.9 | 16.9% | 58 | 0.43% | 79 | 0.58% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 3.3 | 9.3% | 32 | 0.31% | 46 | 0.44% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 4.4 | 13.1% | 45 | 0.36% | 64 | 0.51% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3.0 | 9% | 31 | 0.27% | 44 | 0.38% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.0 | 6.4% | 22 | 0.21% | 30 | 0.29% |
| All ages | 32 | 30.7 | 100% | 344 | 0.33% | 534 | 0.51% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 2020 | 585 | 14916 | 23 | 0 | 109 | 151 |
| October 01 2020 | 595 | 15034 | 24 | 0 | 115 | 148 |
| October 02 2020 | 610 | 15169 | 24 | 0 | 128 | 154 |
| October 03 2020 | 630 | 15327 | 25 | 0 | 141 | 164 |
| October 04 2020 | 641 | 15413 | 26 | 0 | 143 | 165 |
| October 05 2020 | 649 | 15501 | 27 | 0 | 132 | 169 |
| October 06 2020 | 667 | 15620 | 30 | 0 | 145 | 185 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.4 | 7.6% | 11 | 0.14% | 13 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 0.9 | 6.2% | 9 | 0.11% | 17 | 0.2% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 1.1 | 13.1% | 19 | 0.27% | 25 | 0.35% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 2.7 | 19.3% | 28 | 0.33% | 31 | 0.37% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.3 | 8.3% | 12 | 0.15% | 20 | 0.26% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 2.4 | 17.9% | 26 | 0.27% | 35 | 0.36% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 1.7 | 11.7% | 17 | 0.2% | 20 | 0.24% |
| 70+ | 0 | 2.6 | 15.2% | 22 | 0.31% | 22 | 0.31% |
| All ages | 18 | 14.3 | 100% | 145 | 0.22% | 185 | 0.29% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 2020 | 490 | 9086 | 23 | 6 | 70 | 87 |
| October 01 2020 | 498 | 9085 | 23 | 6 | 78 | 93 |
| October 02 2020 | 504 | 9093 | 24 | 6 | 82 | 97 |
| October 03 2020 | 516 | 9140 | 24 | 6 | 91 | 105 |
| October 04 2020 | 522 | 9143 | 24 | 6 | 85 | 102 |
| October 05 2020 | 522 | 9150 | 24 | 6 | 78 | 102 |
| October 06 2020 | 528 | 9157 | 26 | 6 | 72 | 106 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 2020 | 3130 | 25673 | 50 | 3 | 562 | 1119 |
| October 01 2020 | 3205 | 26119 | 50 | 3 | 583 | 1084 |
| October 02 2020 | 3245 | 26344 | 52 | 3 | 547 | 870 |
| October 03 2020 | 3284 | 26591 | 54 | 4 | 499 | 809 |
| October 04 2020 | 3299 | 26653 | 55 | 4 | 461 | 731 |
| October 05 2020 | 3336 | 26669 | 55 | 4 | 390 | 714 |
| October 06 2020 | 3373 | 26864 | 55 | 6 | 383 | 675 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.8% | 3 | 0.03% | 6 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 7.4 | 20.9% | 80 | 0.48% | 158 | 0.95% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 11.3 | 30.5% | 117 | 0.55% | 236 | 1.11% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 4.4 | 11.5% | 44 | 0.32% | 67 | 0.49% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.3% | 28 | 0.21% | 47 | 0.35% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 4.3 | 10.4% | 40 | 0.28% | 57 | 0.4% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 4.0 | 8.1% | 31 | 0.22% | 51 | 0.36% |
| 70+ | 13 | 4.6 | 10.4% | 40 | 0.31% | 53 | 0.41% |
| All ages | 37 | 39.7 | 100% | 383 | 0.32% | 675 | 0.57% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 2020 | 10129 | 198198 | 375 | 43 | 1314 | 2145 |
| October 01 2020 | 10201 | 199479 | 379 | 43 | 1306 | 1959 |
| October 02 2020 | 10217 | 200458 | 382 | 43 | 1270 | 1762 |
| October 03 2020 | 10339 | 201164 | 384 | 43 | 1299 | 1704 |
| October 04 2020 | 10452 | 201238 | 386 | 43 | 1249 | 1637 |
| October 05 2020 | 10514 | 201655 | 387 | 43 | 1169 | 1619 |
| October 06 2020 | 10671 | 203188 | 393 | 43 | 1183 | 1724 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 6.0 | 4.3% | 51 | 0.08% | 72 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 13 | 16.1 | 16.1% | 190 | 0.27% | 329 | 0.46% |
| 20-29 | 25 | 25.7 | 23.4% | 277 | 0.27% | 440 | 0.42% |
| 30-39 | 25 | 19.7 | 16.7% | 198 | 0.26% | 281 | 0.37% |
| 40-49 | 25 | 14.9 | 11.3% | 134 | 0.2% | 194 | 0.3% |
| 50-59 | 25 | 16.9 | 14.4% | 170 | 0.26% | 211 | 0.32% |
| 60-69 | 24 | 10.6 | 8.9% | 105 | 0.19% | 128 | 0.23% |
| 70+ | 13 | 6.4 | 4.9% | 58 | 0.12% | 69 | 0.14% |
| All ages | 157 | 116.3 | 100% | 1183 | 0.22% | 1724 | 0.32% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 2020 | 122274 | 1423247 | 7300 | 1327 | 21047 | 29562 |
| October 01 2020 | 125161 | 1434721 | 7409 | 1348 | 22663 | 30415 |
| October 02 2020 | 127906 | 1445571 | 7506 | 1353 | 23736 | 30627 |
| October 03 2020 | 130798 | 1456763 | 7588 | 1372 | 24866 | 31236 |
| October 04 2020 | 132663 | 1465713 | 7646 | 1377 | 24339 | 31436 |
| October 05 2020 | 134359 | 1472577 | 7702 | 1381 | 23531 | 31861 |
| October 06 2020 | 136379 | 1482116 | 7810 | 1399 | 22734 | 32209 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 60 | 76.9 | 3.3% | 742 | 0.12% | 1087 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 172 | 235.9 | 10.4% | 2361 | 0.31% | 3688 | 0.49% |
| 20-29 | 357 | 426.4 | 19.1% | 4345 | 0.57% | 6458 | 0.85% |
| 30-39 | 316 | 356.1 | 15.5% | 3520 | 0.47% | 4852 | 0.64% |
| 40-49 | 315 | 352.0 | 14.5% | 3296 | 0.47% | 4564 | 0.65% |
| 50-59 | 335 | 399.9 | 16.8% | 3809 | 0.47% | 5281 | 0.65% |
| 60-69 | 258 | 282.0 | 11.7% | 2649 | 0.35% | 3609 | 0.48% |
| 70+ | 207 | 217.1 | 8.9% | 2012 | 0.31% | 2670 | 0.42% |
| All ages | 2020 | 2346.3 | 100% | 22734 | 0.39% | 32209 | 0.55% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 57.3 | 80.7 | 30.7 | 42.9 | 16.3% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.6 | 14.3 | 8.7 | 11.2% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.4 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 22.1% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57.1 | 95.5 | 110.9 | 39.7 | 81.6 | 16.2% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31.5 | 46.3 | 42.4 | 116.3 | 127.1 | 12% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55.3 | 48.7 | 85.3 | 2346.3 | 1935.6 | 19.4% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 20.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.37 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-27 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1539"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges